There's a reason President Biden will be in Pennsylvania for three days this week: His clearest route to Electoral College victory in the fall is through that state. If he wins Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Doug Sosnik writes in an opinion piece in the New York Times, and a few other things go right, Biden could be at 255 electoral votes. He'd then have several viable routes to the required 270. Sosnik, who was a senior adviser to President Clinton, analyzes the map and lays out the most and least likely paths to presidential victory in November for Biden and Donald Trump. A graphic look at how the states could add up works with the piece.
Trump's best path is to carry North Carolina and Georgia, Sosnik says. That would put him at 251 electoral votes, leaving four ways to reach 270. The candidates' starting points this fall, based on past voting, will be 219 electoral votes for Trump and 226 votes for Biden, he writes, "with 93 votes up for grabs." If the two candidates hold their positions, keeping the leads they have now, the race could be decided by Michigan and the two states that probably will have abortion rights on the ballot: Arizona and Nevada. Put another way, Sosnik writes, "For the third election cycle in a row, a small number of voters in a handful of states could determine the next president of the United States." Sosnik's essay can be found here. (More opinion stories.)
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