Why the Oscars Are Already Over

Spoiler alert: The Oscars are over, and The King’s Speech has won Best Picture. Why? Because "in Oscar voting, as in old Hollywood weepies, sentiment trumps sense," writes Richard Corliss in Time. Critics may have loved The Social Network, but not a single one of them is a voting member of the Academy—but plenty of Hollywood guild members are. And in the last two weeks, the Producers Guild, Screen Actors Guild, and Directors Guild all gave The King’s Speech their top award. The first two have prefigured the Best Picture Oscar about 50% of the time in recent years; the DGA has done so 82% of the time in the last 61 years.

It comes down to "heart over head," writes Corliss. The Social Network may be the smarter, more modern choice, but "there's no crying in a Facebook film. The Social Network's Zuckerberg might earn the envy of viewers, but Firth's George VI wins their sympathy. And in the race for the ultimate Oscar, given the choice of a film they respect and one they love, they'll take love every time." So brace yourself for a repeat of 1942, when How Green Was My Valley, a sentimental drama set in the UK, beat another story about a "wayward media mogul"—Citizen Kane.

(More Oscars stories.)