Supreme Court's Move on Gay Marriage? Maybe Not

Kevin Drum at Mother Jones thinks today's court decision declaring California's ban on gay marriage to be unconstitutional is "great news" for sure, but he's not getting too excited just yet. Most people think this one is headed to the Supreme Court, where it looks like Anthony Kennedy will once again provide the swing vote, and "the betting money says this will get overturned 5-4," writes Drum. He also notes that the ruling is "very narrow" and limited to California.

A conservative blogger agrees with the main point: "In the grand scheme of things, there is nothing enduringly significant about today’s ruling," writes Ed Whelan at National Review Online. "The Ninth Circuit was just a way-station on the path to the Supreme Court." Maybe, but Jim Burroway at the Box Turtle Bulletin blog thinks the ruling is so narrow and specific to California that the Supreme Court could pass. "Unless they’re just itching for controversy, it would be very easy for them to point out that there are no burning questions of national importance which require their attention. This decision appears tailor-made to allow the Supreme Court to duck this case altogether." (Andrew Sullivan's The Dish blog highlighted that post and has another roundup of reaction. (More gay marriage stories.)