As Republicans voted to replace ObamaCare Thursday, Democrats were heard singing the sports-anthem taunt, "Hey, Hey, Hey, Goodbye." A new report from political forecaster the Cook Political Report shows why: In the aftermath of the vote, Cook downgraded Republican chances in 20 congressional races in 2018. The scary line for the GOP: "Republicans' willingness to spend political capital on a proposal that garnered the support of just 17% of the public in a March Quinnipiac poll is consistent with past scenarios that have generated a midterm wave." Related coverage:
- Who's most at risk? Republicans who voted for the GOP's American Health Care Act who represent districts that went for Hillary Clinton in 2016 or Barack Obama in the two prior elections. In all, there are 46 of them, reports the Atlantic in a deep dive into the potential political fallout.
- Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight has a different way of looking at the potential GOP trouble: He notes that 58 Republicans who voted for the AHCA won by fewer than 20 points in 2016—and Democrats suffered a 15-point "penalty" in 2010 over ObamaCare. In other words, those 58 have a right to feel nervous.
- For those keeping score, the current House makeup is 238 Republicans to 193 Democrats, with four vacancies, per the Office of the Clerk. (Politico lists the 20 Republicans who voted no. One Republican missed the vote.)