A Crucial Swing State Now Leans Toward Biden

Last week, the Cook Political Report had an update that was good news for President Trump. This week, the good news is for Joe Biden. The outlet has moved the crucial state of Arizona from "toss up" to "lean Democrat." It has Biden up 45% to 40% in the state, which generally jibes with numbers elsewhere, including at FiveThirtyEight.com. Trump won the state in 2016, and losing it in 2020 would not bode well. "A Biden win in Arizona would mean that he could afford to lose Michigan or Wisconsin (two of 'Blue Wall' consortium) and still eke out an Electoral College win (assuming that he wins all the states Hillary Clinton carried in 2016)," writes Amy Walter.

Trump's trouble can be seen in Maricopa County, home of Phoenix. The county accounts for two of every three votes in the state, and Biden is up by 6 points there. It seems that suburban Phoenix voters have turned away from the president, according to the Cook analysis. The news, though, is less dire for Trump in a new Monmouth University poll in Arizona. It has Biden up by 4 points, but only by 2 points among likely 2020 voters, notes Politico. Monmouth also has Democrat Mark Kelly leading Republican Sen. Martha McSally by 6 points in a race seen as critical on whether the Senate flips back to Democratic control. (More Election 2020 stories.)