This Nation's COVID 'Success Story' Is a Mystery

Almost overnight, Japan has become a stunning, and somewhat mysterious, coronavirus success story. Daily new COVID-19 cases have plummeted from a mid-August peak of nearly 6,000 in Tokyo, with caseloads in the densely populated capital now routinely below 100, an 11-month low, per the AP. The bars are packed, the trains are crowded, and the mood is celebratory, despite a general bafflement over what, exactly, is behind the sharp drop. Public health experts want a comprehensive investigation into why infections have dropped off.

Japan, unlike other places in Europe and Asia, has never had anything close to a lockdown, just a series of relatively toothless states of emergency. Some possible factors in Japan's success include a belated but remarkably rapid vaccination campaign (nearly 70% of the population is fully vaccinated), especially among young people; bad weather in late August that kept people home; an emptying out of many nightlife areas as fears spread during a recent surge in cases; and mask wearing.

"Rapid and intensive vaccinations in Japan among those younger than 64 might have created a temporary condition similar to herd immunity," says Dr. Kazuhiro Tateda, a Toho University virology professor. Tateda notes that vaccination rates surged in July to September, just as the more infectious delta variant was spreading fast. He cautions, however, that breakthrough infections in the US, Britain, and other places where inoculations began months earlier than in Japan show that vaccines alone aren't perfect and that efficacy gradually wears off.

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Though some speculated the drop in cases might be due to less testing, Tokyo metropolitan government data showed the positivity rate fell from 25% in late August to 1% in mid-October, while the number of tests fell by one-third. A Tokyo Medical Association representative said falling positivity rates show infections have slowed. But with vaccine efficacy gradually waning and winter approaching, experts worry that without knowing exactly why cases have dropped so drastically, Japan could face another wave like this summer, when hospitals overflowed with serious cases and deaths soared. That has led many, including young people, to keep their masks on. "I'm still worried about the virus," one university student says. (More Japan stories.)