Investors See Rate Cuts on the Horizon

The Federal Reserve meets this week, and the suspense is not whether it will raise interest rates, but by how much. While speculation swirled earlier in the month that the Fed might raise its benchmark rate by an unprecedented 1 full percentage point, the best bet now is that the central bank will opt for a lesser hike of three-quarters of a point, reports the Washington Post. That is still aggressive by historical standards and will be the fourth increase in five months, notes the Post, all in the hope of taming sky-high inflation.

And what about after this month? The Wall Street Journal reports that investors appear to be betting that the Fed will keep raising rates through the end of this year before shifting course and cutting rates again by June 2023. The main Fed-funds rate is currently set between 1.5% and 1.75%, and investors expect it to be about 3.3% by year's end, but 2.5% by mid 2024, per the Journal. Its story susses this out in part by examining activity related to US bonds, which can provide a window into investors' expectations about where rates are going in the short and long terms. (More Federal Reserve stories.)