One big factor in the looming question of how Israel and its allies in the West failed to anticipate the Hamas attack that launched a war? Iran. Senior members of Hamas and Hezbollah, both of which are Iran-backed militant groups, anonymously confirm to the Wall Street Journal that Iranian security officials helped Hamas plan Saturday's attack. (A spokesperson for Hamas had previously said the same to the BBC.) Representatives of Hamas, Hezbollah, two other militant groups backed by Iran, and Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps planned the attacks during a series of meetings in Beirut, the sources say, and the green light was apparently given at a meeting there last Monday.
US officials say they have yet to see evidence Iran was involved, both the Journal and CNN report, but a European official and a Syrian government adviser agreed with the anonymous Hamas and Hezbollah leaders' description of events. Asked officially, however, both a senior Hamas official and a spokesperson for Iran's mission to the UN denied Iranian involvement (though the spokesperson said Tehran does wholeheartedly support "the Palestinian resistance," and, as Reuters reports, Iran has publicly called the Hamas attack "self-defense"). As for Israel, it has blamed Iran for having at least indirect involvement. More on the Iran link:
- Journal analysis: The WSJ says if Iran was directly involved, that "would take Tehran's long-running conflict with Israel out of the shadows, raising the risk of broader conflict in the Middle East," particularly Israel striking back at Iran. The paper adds that Iran wants to "create a multi-front threat that can strangle Israel from all sides—Hezbollah and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine in the north and Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hamas in Gaza and the West Bank." More background and analysis at the Journal here.
- What to watch for: Politico runs down "six things national security experts are watching" in the conflict, and Iran gets a few mentions, including in the question of exactly how big this war will get. (Also mentioned is China's role in the region, which could further complicate matters.) Full piece here.
- "A message from Iran": That's the take in one response piece, by Kim Ghattas at the Atlantic. Ghattas says the attack was "a dramatic success for Iran's axis of resistance from Yemen to Gaza," but predicts it will be Palestinian civilians who will pay the price, being "left to fend for themselves under Israeli retaliation ... while Iran, Hamas, and Hezbollah play a regional game." Full piece here.
- "No matter who loses, Iran wins": In another response piece at the Conversation, Aaron Pilkington offers a similar take, predicting that "thousands on both sides will suffer. But when the smoke settles, only one country's interests will have been served: Iran's." Full piece here.
- Elon Musk gets involved: The X owner on Sunday commented on a post celebrating the Hamas attack from Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the Hill reports. "Khamenei's official position is clear that the eradication of Israel is the actual goal, not just supporting Palestinians," Musk wrote, though he predicted that will not happen, but rather "a never-ending cycle of violence and vengeance" will continue.
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