The Congressional Budget Office said Friday it expects inflation to nearly hit the Federal Reserve's 2% target rate in 2024, as overall growth is expected to slow and unemployment is expected to rise into 2025, according to updated economic projections for the next two years. The office's Current View of the Economy from 2023 to 2025 report estimates that the unemployment rate will hit 4.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024 and remain close to that level through 2025, per the AP. Currently, the unemployment rate is 3.7%.
Meanwhile, gross domestic product, otherwise known as the overall health of the economy, is estimated to fall from 2.5% in 2023 to 1.5% in 2024—then rebound to 2.2% in 2025, according to the CBO projections. Of course, the CBO notes that its projections "are highly uncertain and many factors could lead to different outcomes." All in all, however, the new data suggests that the elusive "soft landing"—a return to the target 2% inflation without a steep recession—is on track to happen in 2024, per Axios.
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