'There Was No Deal to Be Had' Without Vadim Krasikov

It was the biggest prisoner swap in recent history, involving 24 people and seven countries. Sixteen journalists, pro-democracy activists, and others held by Russia and Belarus were exchanged Thursday for eight Russians jailed for espionage, murder, hacking, and other crimes in the US, Norway, Germany, Slovenia, and Poland. Here's how the Biden administration scored a win that might nonetheless embolden Russia:

• Who? The Wall Street Journal has blurbs on each of those freed. They include journalists Evan Gershkovich and Alsu Kurmasheva, former US Marine Paul Whelan; US resident Vladimir Kara-Murza; and Russian associates of the late Alexei Navalny. Russia, meanwhile, gains Vadim Krasikov.
• The key: Putin had "a kind of obsession" with freeing Krasikov, who was serving a life sentence in Germany for gunning down a former Chechen fighter, per the Washington Post. There was talk of Putin viewing the assassin, linked to an elite group within the Federal Security Service, as a friend. "Without Mr. Krasikov as part of a deal, there was no deal to be had," per the New York Times.
• A deal falls apart: The US had pushed Germany to release Krasikov in 2022, but there was too much political risk for Chancellor Olaf Scholz, per the Times. Scholz eventually agreed to free Krasikov in exchange for Alexei Navalny, but Navalny died soon after, meaning the deal had to be reworked.

• Secret dealings: It was "an intensive diplomatic effort that took place almost entirely out of public view," "negotiated mostly by spies and sometimes through secret messages hand-delivered by couriers," the Times reports. It adds June 25 was "a turning point" as the proposed exchange of two dozen prisoners took shape during a secret meeting in the Middle East.
• Behind the scenes: Then battling COVID, President Biden spoke with the prime minister of Slovenia on July 21 ensuring he was willing to release a Russian couple jailed in 2022 for spying. It was one of the final pieces of the puzzle. About an hour later, Biden announced he was dropping out of the presidential campaign, per the Post.
• Strength in allies: The deal is "at least a partial vindication" of Biden's foreign policy strategy of "drawing on friendships and allies nurtured over decades," which stands in contrast to "former President Donald Trump's constant attacks on America's overseas friends," per the Journal. America's allies "stood with us," Biden said Thursday, resulting in "a very good afternoon," per the Times.

• Worth it? The Post remarks on a "heavy imbalance" in the deal "with Russia winning the release of individuals convicted of serious crimes while the West is focused on its own citizens jailed on trivial or baseless charges, or even on Russia's own citizens who are the victims of political persecution by Putin's government."
• Emboldening Russia: One major critique is that the deal plays into Russia's hands, showing it can continue arresting innocent Westerners on bogus charges "in the service of recovering those [Putin] sends abroad to do the dirty work of the Russian state," per the Times. It "dramatically heightens the risks for journalists, aid workers and business executives," per the Post.
• Not included: Marc Fogel, a 63-year-old US teacher serving a 14-year sentence in Russia for importing medical marijuana in August 2021. A senior administration official said the US wanted to include him, but "we just couldn't get the Russians there." In a statement, his wife and sons say he "must be prioritized in any swap negotiations with Russia."
• Trump weighs in: Former President Trump previously claimed he would be able to free Gershkovich "for no compensation" while Biden could only free him "for a king's ransom." After the exchange, Trump suggested "without evidence that the deal might have included secret money payments," per the Journal. White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan, who had a hand in negotiations, noted no money was exchanged and no sanctions loosened, per CNN.

(More prisoner swap stories.)