Gas Prices May Cross $3 on Their Way Down

Gas prices are dropping, and industry analysts—while warning of a big caveat—say they're on track to keep falling, possibly bringing the national average for a gallon of regular to $3 a gallon for the first time in three years. The average price at the pump has plunged more than 20 cents since May to $3.38, which is about 47 cents below what it was a year ago, NPR reports. In fact, a AAA spokesperson told USA Today, prices are "falling almost a penny a day now."

Heat helped drive gas prices up a year ago when it forced Texas refineries to cut operations. Although this summer has had record-breaking high temperatures, Texas and Louisiana, where most US refineries are located, have escaped the worst of it. Hurricanes are still a threat, however; Idalia briefly shut down oil production in the Gulf of Mexico last year. "The late-season wild card is always hurricanes," said Patrick De Haan a petroleum analyst for GasBuddy, per NPR. "If a hurricane makes landfall in a refining area, it can really disrupt things."

International pressures could play a role, too. Iran's oil production hasn't been affected so far by its aid to Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthi allies aligned against Israel, which is supported by the US. "If Iran gets more heavily involved, that could be a problem, said AAA spokesperson Andrew Gross. China's stalling economy has reduced its demand for oil, and analysts expect OPEC+ to reduce its production cuts this fall. At the same time, the US is pumping record amounts of petroleum despite its own reduction in demand. De Haan said prices at the pump, at this rate, could fall below the $3-a-gallon threshold by Thanksgiving and stay there into next year. (More gas prices stories.)