Political commentator William Kristol thinks most of his peers are overlooking a fundamental truth of the 2024 election: "Abortion rights is the issue that could decide this presidential contest," he writes at the Bulwark. And by that he means it could decide it in favor of Kamala Harris. The latest proof comes via a surprise poll out of Iowa over the weekend that showed Harris leading Donald Trump 47% to 44% in the state long seen as a safe win for the former president. "It's hard for anybody to say they saw this coming," pollster J. Ann Selzer told the Des Moines Register.
Iowa, Kristol notes, has a six-week abortion ban, and he thinks it's the primary reason for the poll results, as well as for explaining why the presidential race is as close as it is nationally. Without the Supreme Court's Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade, Harris would likely be trailing Trump heading into Tuesday, he argues. "The issue of abortion rights is critical to analyzing and understanding this election," he writes. "Reproductive freedom is a real issue that separates the two presidential candidates and their two parties from one another. Voters are entitled to vote on it. Many are." (Read the full op-ed.)
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