Before Tuesday's election, history professor Allan Lichtman had correctly predicted the outcome of 9 of the previous 10 presidential elections—and he has long argued that Al Gore was the real winner in 2000, making the streak 10 out of 10. But he got it wrong this time, and the American University professor plans to take a break. "Right now after a very long night I am taking some time off to assess why I was wrong and what the future holds for America," the 77-year-old tells USA Today.
Lichtman predicted a Kamala Harris win two months ago, saying eight of the 13 "keys" he uses to make predictions were in her favor, including incumbent-party mandate and the lack of a significant third-party challenge. In Lichtman's view, "almost everything that the media and political establishment pay attention to—such as campaigns, candidate quality, debates, and ideological positions—is irrelevant to the outcome," according to Gilad Edelman at the Atlantic. During a six-hour election podcast hosted by his son, Samuel Lichtman, the professor said he was shocked by the results.
"If she can pull off Pennsylvania, she still has a good shot," Lichtman said toward the end of the podcast, but he eventually admitted: "The math doesn't work. The numbers don't lie." Lichtman, who was widely praised for correctly predicting Donald Trump's 2016 win, said he will discuss why he failed to predict Trump's second win. "Unlike Nate Silver, who will try to squirm out of why he didn't see the election coming, I admit that I was wrong," he said in a post on X. "I will assess the election and the keys on my live show this Thursday at 9 PM Eastern."
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Meanwhile, social media sensation Moo Deng predicted Trump's victory with a method very different to Lichtman's keys. The Hill reports that the baby hippo's handlers at a Thai zoo presented her with two fruit cakes, one with Harris' name and one with Trump's name. She chose the Trump cake. (More Allan Lichtman stories.)
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