Google DeepMind 'Opens New Front' in Weather Forecasts

Google's DeepMind artificial intelligence research lab says its new weather forecasting program is so accurate it could literally be a lifesaver. In a study published in the journal Nature, DeepMind researchers say the GenCast model opens "a new front in weather forecasting," with 15-day forecasts more accurate than any of its rivals. Lead study author Ilan Price says GenCast is also much faster than the supercomputers used in other forecasts, which could make it a vital tool to help people avoid deadly storms, reports the New York Times. He says it can provide 15-day forecasts in minutes when it would take a supercomputer hours.

The ENS forecast European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast is widely seen as the world leader, the Guardian reports. But the DeepMind team says GenCast performs up to 20% better. Study co-author Remi Lam says DeepMind's weather team made stunningly fast progress after releasing a previous system last year. "I'm a little bit reluctant to say it, but it's like we've made decades worth of improvements in one year," he tells the Times. "We're seeing really, really rapid progress." DeepMind says GenCast outperformed the European model in 97% of tests. Researchers trained GenCast on 40 years of weather data ending in 2018, then looked at how it accurately it was able to predict the weather in 2019.

Previous AI forecasters "having been trained on real-world data, are generally not great at handling extreme weather since it shows up so rarely in the training set," Ars Technica notes. But GenCast researchers say their model consistently outperformed the European one in tracking hurricanes and predicting abnormally high or low temperatures. Kerry Emanuel, a professor emeritus of atmospheric science at MIT, says GenCast is an "important step forward," though he believes it will complement, not replace, more traditional forecasts. "The status quo isn't going to disappear," Emanuel tells the Times. "Perhaps the two of them working together will prove to be the best way forward." Price says the DeepMind team plans to make GenCast, and its underlying code, available online. (More Google Deepmind stories.)