Oh, No: They Could Tie

It’s not inconceivable that the 2008 election could end in an electoral tie. OK, granted, the odds are roughly 99-1, but that 1% chance is enough to send politics geeks flocking to sites such as FiveThirtyEight.com, which conduct complex electoral simulations based on the latest polling, the Wall Street Journal reports. “If we had a tie, I would be surprised, but I wouldn't be shocked,” said simulation guru Sheldon Jacobsen.

These simulation sites also show a nearly 8% chance that the popular-vote winner could lose electorally. The projections are volatile, swinging wildly with new polls, but they’ve had success: Jacobsen called 2004 correctly. The most likely tie scenario involves the candidates splitting Nebraska’s oddly divided electoral vote. That would leave the new House of Representatives to decide the election. (More Election 2008 stories.)