Nate Silver – News Stories About Nate Silver - Page 3

Poll Numbers

Oct 26, 2012 3:25 PM CDT

Obama, Romney Are Basically Tied*

*But Obama still looks more likely to win the electoral college

(Newser) - If this year's presidential election was determined by the popular vote, it would be anybody's game. A new Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll today has President Obama leading by 1 point—essentially a statistical tie—while Investors Business Daily 's poll has Obama up by 2.3 points. But...

Romney Up by 3 in Gallup; Momentum Slowing?

Oct 25, 2012 2:40 PM CDT

Romney Up by 3 in Gallup; Momentum Slowing?

Latest poll still has him ahead, but by a smaller margin than last week

(Newser) - Mitt Romney's lead over President Obama stands at 3 points in today's Gallup tracking poll, and among registered voters Obama actually leads 48-47. The poll is noteworthy, the Hill explains, because Gallup has lately been much higher on Romney than all the other polls; he was ahead by...

New Poll: Romney
Leads Obama
49%-47%

PLUS, GOP WINNING CASH RACE

Oct 22, 2012 7:11 AM CDT

New Poll: Romney Leads Obama 49%-47%

GOP ahead $46B in cash race

(Newser) - After an NBC poll found a tie at 47% yesterday, a Politico-George Washington University tracking poll today offers a different take on the presidential race that has Mitt Romney leading President Obama 49% to 47% nationally. It's the first time since early May that Romney has led in the...

Sorry, GOP: Polls Aren't Biased

NATE SILVER

Sep 30, 2012 1:21 PM CDT

Sorry, GOP: Polls Aren't Biased

Also, a rundown of the latest polls

(Newser) - The GOP has spent a lot of time lately decrying the bias driving polls that show President Obama opening up a lead over Mitt Romney, but Nate Silver takes a look at how final polls have historically performed against results, and finds that while they have occasionally missed the mark,...

Obama's Lead Is
Starting to Look Real

Nate Silver

Sep 21, 2012 1:51 PM CDT

Obama's Lead Is Starting to Look Real

Nate Silver's model shows the president's chance of victory is strong

(Newser) - President Obama has been doing very well in the polls lately—and it's looking less and less like the product of a post-convention bounce. According to the FiveThirtyEight prediction model, Obama now has a 76.1% chance of winning reelection, up from 75.2% on Wednesday, Nate Silver writes...

Not Much
Post-Convention
Bounce for Mitt

Nate Silver

Sep 2, 2012 6:03 AM CDT

Not Much Post-Convention Bounce for Mitt

Poll changes mostly just 'noise,' says Nate Silver

(Newser) - Just days after the end of the Republican National Convention, it looks like Mitt Romney's "bounce" is pretty modest, writes Nate Silver for the New York Times . Rasmussen's poll produced the best result, giving Romney a five-point swing and a three-percentage-point lead now. Ipsos now has Romney...

Anti-Incumbent
Fever May Give
Dems a Shot
at House

Nate Silver

Jun 24, 2012 7:01 AM CDT

Anti-Incumbent Fever May Give Dems a Shot at House

Unlikely, says Silver, but House hard to analyze

(Newser) - Stats guru Nate Silver may have President Obama slightly favored to win re-election in November, and the battle for Senate in a tossup, but what does he think about the House? In his latest blog post in the New York Times , Silver calls Republicans "reasonably clear favorites" to keep...

Ignore
Obama's
'13-Point
Lead'

nate silver

Jun 21, 2012 3:55 PM CDT

Ignore Obama's '13-Point Lead'

Nate Silver: Bloomberg poll doesn't mean much

(Newser) - Stats wiz Nate Silver has some serious doubts about Bloomberg's new poll showing President Obama with a 13-point lead over Mitt Romney. Silver's own analysis has Obama with just a slim lead over Romney, and little has changed over the past two weeks, he writes in his New ...

Nate Silver's 1st Forecast:
Obama By a Nose

Analysis

Jun 7, 2012 1:50 PM CDT

Nate Silver's 1st Forecast: Obama By a Nose

FiveThirtyEight guru lays out 2012 model

(Newser) - OK, it's official, the general election season has begun: Nate Silver has started forecasting it. The stats guru today unveiled his first, tenuous prediction for the 2012 race: That President Obama is ever so slightly favored to win a second term. The model currently gives Obama a 60% chance...

Introducing 'Elastic States'

nate silver

May 21, 2012 1:47 PM CDT

Introducing 'Elastic States'

They're not swing states, but they have a lot of swing voters: Nate Silver

(Newser) - You already know all about swing states; today in the New York Times , Nate Silver introduces another important factor in the 2012 election: elastic states, which can produce difficult-to-predict results. Swing states, he explains, sometimes have very few swing voters (see North Carolina, where likely Democratic voters are fairly evenly...

Illinois Could
Finish Off
Santorum

Nate Silver

Mar 20, 2012 12:55 PM CDT

Illinois Could Finish Off Santorum

Nate Silver doesn't think the race is close

(Newser) - Look at a map, and you might think the race between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum was relatively close. It's not. Do the math, and you'll see that, barring some kind of breakthrough, Santorum hasn't got a prayer, writes Nate Silver of the New York Times . A...

Gingrich Exit Wouldn't
Save Santorum

Nate Silver

Mar 8, 2012 12:04 PM CST

Gingrich Exit Wouldn't Save Santorum

Nate Silver does the math, and concludes that Santorum's in trouble

(Newser) - The math is not looking good for Rick Santorum, and his supporters are pressing Newt Gingrich to drop out of the race so as to change that. So Nate Silver of the New York Times decided to do the math and see just how much that would help Santorum's...

7 Super Tuesday Takeaways

Mar 7, 2012 7:48 AM CST

7 Super Tuesday Takeaways

Including how Mitt Romney is like a world-devouring super villain

(Newser) - Now that the dust has cleared, what did we learn on Super Tuesday ? Among the biggest takeaways:

Republicans don't love these guys: "It's almost like a bad version of Goldilocks. Nobody is just right," quips Philip Elliott of the AP . Exit polls showed that a

...

Romney Needs to Go Positive, Win Some Fans

Nate Silver

Feb 14, 2012 11:46 AM CST

Romney Needs to Go Positive, Win Some Fans

Nate Silver says Rick Santorum's voters are a lot more enthusiastic

(Newser) - Mitt Romney's got a big problem in his fight with Rick Santorum: His supporters are a lot less enthusiastic, observes Nate Silver of the New York Times . According to one poll, Santorum is beating Romney by 11 points among people who are definitely going to vote. Romney leads by...

Romney's In
for a Long,
Messy Fight

Nate Silver

Feb 8, 2012 12:01 PM CST

Romney's In for a Long, Messy Fight

Nate Silver on Mitt's horrific night in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri

(Newser) - Even after last night, Mitt Romney will probably win the Republican nomination, but "it should be acknowledged that he had about the worst results conceivable," writes Nate Silver of the New York Times . He didn't win a single county in Minnesota, finishing 27 points behind Rick Santorum....

Romney Poised for
Decisive Victory

Florida Primary Preview

Jan 31, 2012 7:54 AM CST

Romney Poised for Decisive Victory

Florida primary polls looking good for Mitt, but there are subplots

(Newser) - Voters will be casting ballots in Florida today, and if polls are any indication, they'll be voting for Mitt Romney. But as always, there are other subplots to watch, too. Here's a rundown of what the pundits are saying:

Based on dozens of polls, Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight

...

Now All the Polls Love Mitt

nate silver

Jan 29, 2012 5:21 PM CST

Now All the Polls Love Mitt

Tally of polling data gives Romney 9% lead in Florida: Nate Silver

(Newser) - Not only does a recent Quinnipiac Poll give Mitt Romney the lead in the Florida primary. There are also automated polls, check-box polls, house-call polls, mouse-click polls, partisan polls, academic polls... Nate Silver has added them up in the New York Times and tallied a 9-point overall lead for Romney...

Stakes Colossal
for Newt Tonight

Debate Preview

Jan 26, 2012 10:41 AM CST

Stakes Colossal for Newt Tonight

Polls show Romney may have stopped his momentum ahead of CNN Florida debate

(Newser) - The GOP field will have its last debate before the Florida primary tonight, and it just might be a doozy. Here's why:

Newt Gingrich's polling advantage may have vanished. The latest CNN poll has Mitt Romney at 36% and Gingrich at 34%, a statistical tie, and a far

...

Gingrich
the Favorite
in Florida

Nate Silver

Jan 25, 2012 2:00 PM CST

Gingrich the Favorite in Florida

Nate Silver's model gives him a 75% chance of victory, with some 'buts'

(Newser) - With Florida less than a week away, Nate Silver is busily crunching the numbers, and while the polls are a tad contradictory, they do show a clear favorite: Newt Gingrich. Indeed, Silver's system gives Gingrich a whopping 75% chance of victory, although that "seems like too confident a...

Breaking Down the NH Results

Analysis

Jan 11, 2012 7:54 AM CST

Breaking Down the NH Results

It was a good night to be Mitt Romney

(Newser) - The New Hampshire primary is in the books, and pundits are poring over the results for insight. Here's what they're saying:

"Expectations, schmexpectations: (Mitt) Romney had a great night," writes Nate Silver of the New York Times . Romney missed his poll numbers, but was swiftly declared

...