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Why This Year's Pollsters Are Stumped

(Newser) - This year's presidential race is bamboozling many a pollster. Todd Domke looks at some of skewing factors for the Boston Globe:
  • Race: White voters might be reluctant to tell pollsters they oppose a black candidate. Tom Bradley, remember, led the polls for California governor but lost the race. Then again,
...

Low-Income Workers Favor Obama
Low-Income Workers Favor Obama
Aug 4, 2008 10:22 AM CDT

Low-Income Workers Favor Obama

Most doubt outcome of election will change their personal finances

(Newser) - Low-income workers favor Barack Obama over John McCain by a whopping 2 to 1 margin, a new Washington Post poll shows, but they doubt that Obama or any other politician will improve their lives. Obama owes much of his edge to overwhelming support from black and Hispanic voters, but even...

We're Down, We're Really Down: Poll

76% of Americans say country is headed in wrong direction

(Newser) - Only 24% of Americans think the country is on the right track in a new CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll. That number is the lowest since 1980. The other times it has dipped below 30% were during Watergate, the Iran hostage crisis, and the economic slump of 1992. As recently as...

Polls Show No Bump From Obama Trip
Polls Show No Bump From Obama Trip
Jul 31, 2008 9:51 AM CDT

Polls Show No Bump From Obama Trip

He still holds 5% edge; McCain attacks don't stick either

(Newser) - Neither Barack Obama’s foreign tour nor John McCain’s harsh attacks of it have made a dent in the polls, CNN reports. In the first poll conducted entirely after the trip, Obama holds a 51-44% lead, a mincing step up from last month’s 50-45% edge. His numbers on...

Calif. Against Gay Marriage Ban: Poll

Slim majority say they would reject Prop 8 in November

(Newser) - A small majority of Californians polled would vote against a state constitutional ban on same-sex marriage in November, the Los Angeles Times reports. A Field Poll of 672 voters found that 51% oppose Proposition 8, while 42% support it. The ballot measure would define marriage as being exclusively between a...

Racial Divide Persists Despite Obama: Poll

Racial attitudes have barely budged despite groundbreaking run

(Newser) - Barack Obama's often hailed "post-racial" run for the White House is, in fact, unfolding in an America still sharply divided by race, a New York Times/CBS News poll has discovered. The lives of most Americans are as racially segregated as they were 8 years ago, the poll says. Black...

Voters Split on Candidates' Iraq Stances: Poll

Poll score: Obama 50%, McCain 49%

(Newser) - Barack Obama and John McCain have battled each other to a draw when it comes to Iraq, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. Americans are split more or less down the middle on Iraq policy, with 50% supporting Obama’s withdrawal timetable and 49% backing McCain’s open-ended...

Cellphone Users Are Missing From Polls

Overlooked bloc could give Obama a hidden 2% boost

(Newser) - Pollsters are setting themselves up for an embarrassment, Salon predicts, by using only landlines in surveys, ignoring the 15% of American adults who use only cellphones. That 15% is predominantly young, full of students, and disproportionately black and Hispanic. They are not, in other words, likely McCain voters. Add this...

What's Up With the Prez Polls?
 What's Up With the Prez Polls? 
ANALYSIS
Jun 29, 2008 10:20 AM CDT

What's Up With the Prez Polls?

Expert explains why some surveys give Obama a double-digit lead

(Newser) - Voter polls on John McCain and Barack Obama are all over the map: Gallup has them neck-and-neck, while LA Times/Bloomberg and Newsweek say Obama leads by up to 15 points. What gives? One expert says the latter polls relied too heavily on Democrats. "We know that the best predictor...

Obama Grabs 15-Point Lead Over McCain: Poll

Youth vote gives hopeful long-awaited bump

(Newser) - Breaking out of a tight race, Barack Obama registered a 51% to 36% lead over John McCain in the newest Newsweek nationwide poll, released today. Obama's bounce, expected after Hillary Clinton conceded him the Democratic nomination, comes courtesy of younger voters, who prefer him by 66% to 27%. Among registered...

Obama Up in Swing States, Making Red Inroads
Obama Up in Swing States, Making Red Inroads
analysis
Jun 18, 2008 7:06 PM CDT

Obama Up in Swing States, Making Red Inroads

Taking Virginia could be huge; Electoral College edge pronounced

(Newser) - Barack Obama holds a 2-point edge over John McCain in recently red Virginia, a poll margin Eric Kleefeld, on Talking Points Memo, sees allowing Obama to make “the map of competitive states really ... much broader than usual this year.” Blogger Nate at FiveThirtyEight.com reads in the numbers...

Poll Highlights Obama's Race Dilemma

Many white Democrats would rather vote for McCain

(Newser) - Barack Obama will need to defeat not only John McCain but prejudice within his own party if he is to win the presidency, a Newsweek poll finds. Pollsters divided respondents into two categories, based on answers to questions on race-related topics. Among white Democrats who scored low on the poll's...

In Poll, Californians Oppose Gay Marriage—Barely

Amendment has majority support, but may not pass

(Newser) - A majority of Californians opposes gay marriage, but the margin is very slim, according to a new LA Times poll. For the moment, gay marriage is legal in California, but voters could ban it by approving a constitutional amendment in November. Right now 54% say they support a ban. But...

Obama Pulls Ahead of McCain by 8 Points

Likely nominee now has majority of pledged delegates

(Newser) - Barack Obama, who claimed a majority of pledged delegates last night after his win in the Oregon primary, has opened up an 8-point lead over John McCain in national polling, reports Reuters. Obama, who was tied with McCain in the Reuters/Zogby poll a month ago, also doubled, to 26 points,...

Confidence in Bush Still Plunging: Poll

Approval hits career low; 82% believe US is on wrong path

(Newser) - Support for President Bush has sunk to its lowest level yet, according to a new Washington Post/ABC News poll. Bush's 31% approval rating marks a career low as 82% of Americans now think the country is heading in the wrong direction. Opinions were highly split along partisan lines.

Colbert Not World's Most Influential Person

Despite host's truthy campaign, Time poll honor goes to Wii designer

(Newser) - The result of an annual Time poll to name the most influential person in the world didn’t exactly give closure to a heated rivalry between contenders Stephen Colbert and Korean pop star Rain—neither took the top honor. That went to programmer Shigeru Miyamoto, creator of Nintendo’s Wii,...

Labour Will Lose London, Final Poll Says

Boris Johnson on course for 10-point victory in mayor's race

(Newser) - With 48 hours to go before the election, a final poll gives Boris Johnson a 10-point edge in the race for mayor of London. The shambolic Tory is poised to romp to victory over incumbent Ken Livingstone Thursday, according to the pollster YouGov. The finding is completely at odds with...

Dems Shower Each Other With Attacks

Clinton, Obama swing hard as Pa. primary nears

(Newser) - Democratic hopefuls blasted each other's tactics today as Tuesday's Pennsylvania primary fast approaches, the Caucus blog reports. Hillary Clinton called Barack Obama's campaign "negative" and released an ad saying he spreads “false charges” about her health care plan. Obama's camp rolled out an ad rejecting her claim that...

McCain Expands Fan Club
 McCain Expands 
 Fan Club 
Apr 17, 2008 4:56 PM CDT

McCain Expands Fan Club

GOP's disenchanted, independents and even some Democrats on board: poll

(Newser) - John McCain has been quietly winning back Republicans unhappy with the Bush era—and can even claim the support of many moderate Democrats. A new poll shows 20% of the electorate remains undecided, but McCain is now virtually tied with either Democrat—a far better result than the 13-point lead...

Poll: McCain Ties Obama, Beats Clinton Narrowly

Republican is trusted more than either Democrat on economy

(Newser) - John McCain is tied with Barack Obama and has a 5-point edge over Hillary Clinton in a Reuters poll out today—an improvement for the Democrats. On economic stewardship, the Republican had a 3-point margin over Obama and a 5-point margin over Clinton. The pollster said the Dems continue hurting...

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